Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-03 00:00:00+00:00 2.018016e-01 0.240330 0.281626 0.328906 0.381267 0.437221 0.501271
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 1.506216e-01 0.202163 0.261604 0.334114 0.419089 0.514488 0.628648
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 1.082849e-01 0.164857 0.235123 0.326160 0.438402 0.569850 0.732992
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 8.190599e-02 0.141341 0.220582 0.328948 0.468476 0.637633 0.853729
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 5.939273e-02 0.117772 0.201689 0.322827 0.485397 0.688877 0.955628
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 4.077046e-02 0.095000 0.179715 0.309070 0.489941 0.723349 1.036797
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 3.147265e-02 0.084610 0.173654 0.315824 0.520940 0.791686 1.161675
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 2.192132e-02 0.070642 0.159471 0.308666 0.531405 0.832566 1.251673
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 1.800504e-02 0.066566 0.160644 0.324208 0.573972 0.916952 1.399796
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 1.304505e-02 0.058199 0.152833 0.324536 0.593915 0.970629 1.508103
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 9.360213e-03 0.051185 0.146126 0.325599 0.614352 1.024926 1.617800
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 7.203786e-03 0.047325 0.144754 0.335112 0.647479 1.097344 1.752924
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 5.515193e-03 0.044105 0.144397 0.346681 0.684831 1.177633 1.901835
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 4.131152e-03 0.041005 0.143739 0.357524 0.721320 1.257480 2.051624
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 2.454056e-03 0.034805 0.134842 0.352485 0.732098 1.300192 2.150621
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.583726e-03 0.031324 0.131579 0.357445 0.758888 1.366586 2.283504
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 7.926516e-04 0.026409 0.123479 0.352189 0.768352 1.407283 2.380616
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 2.591316e-04 0.020810 0.111765 0.338315 0.762333 1.424216 2.443821
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 1.215149e-04 0.019042 0.110662 0.345939 0.792957 1.496845 2.587459
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.857094e-05 0.015520 0.102900 0.338593 0.797093 1.528864 2.672806
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 7.100388e-06 0.015272 0.106103 0.355295 0.843928 1.627305 2.855533
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 1.850092e-08 0.013209 0.102191 0.355747 0.861716 1.680877 2.973437
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 NaN 0.011463 0.098791 0.356940 0.880678 1.736407 3.094688